ESL One Genting 2018 Playoffs Predictions
The Group Stage of ESL One Genting 2018 is over, and only 6 teams are left to compete in the tournament’s Playoffs. They will be fighting for 80% of the initial prize pool of $400.000 and also for the 400 Dota Pro Circuit qualification points.
Prize pool and points distribution
The prize pool and points distribution for the tournament’s Playoffs are the following:
- 1st place: $160.000, 200 points.
- 2nd place: $80.000, 120 points.
- 3rd-4th place: $40.000, 40 points.
- 5th-6th place: $20.000, 0 points.
Playoffs dates, format and participants
The Playoffs of ESL One Genting 2018 are scheduled to take place between January 26 and January 28 and will be played in a single elimination bracket format. Quarterfinals and Semifinals will be Bo3, while the Finals are Bo5.
The 6 teams that have qualified for this stage of the tournament are Team Secret, Virtus.pro, Vici Gaming, Team Liquid, Newbee and Evil Geniuses. They’re also the top 6 teams at the moment in the Dota Pro Circuit rankings. So until this point, we’ve had no big upsets.
Here’s what we know about the ESL One Genting 2018 Playoffs participants:
Right now, they are the best team in the world, both in terms of form as well as in the Dota Pro Circuit rankings. Their current roster works really well as a team and every member plays his role to perfection.
Team Secret made it to the Finals of the ESL One Hamburg 2017 Major, and then went on to win the second Major of the season (ROG DreamLeague Season 8) by defeating Team Liquid in the Finals without dropping a single game. At their latest Dota Pro Circuit LAN event (Captains Draft 4.0), Team Secret were crowned champions, but looked a bit shaky against Vici Gaming and only barely won the Finals (score 3-2) after 2 spectacular comebacks.
During the Group Stage of ESL One Genting 2018, Team Secret didn’t lose a single game, defeating Planet Dog, Fnatic and Virtus.pro along the way. In particular, the match against Virtus.pro saw Team Secret make a great comeback (they were fighting against Mega Creeps) and win a hard fought game, thanks in part to MidOne’s godlike performance on Invoker.
They’re the ESL One Hamburg and DOTA Summit 8 champions and the second best team in the Dota Pro Circuit rankings for the time being. Until their match against Team Secret, Virtus.pro hadn’t lost a single game at ESL One Genting 2018, defeating SG e-sports and the Galaxy Battles II: Emerging Worlds champions, VGJ.Thunder.
Theoretically, Virtus.pro are a top contender for winning this tournament. It remains to be seen however if Solo and his team can overcome their next two opponents (Evil Geniuses and Team Liquid) on their way to the Finals.
They are an almost entirely different team from the one that failed to qualify for The International last season. Only one player (Zeng “Ori” Jiaoyang) and the team’s coach (Zhang “LaNm” Zhicheng, who has transitioned to the role of support) have remained. The other three roles have been filled by well known top Chinese players from other teams.
In the Chinese region, Vici Gaming are performing well, defeating strong teams and qualifying for important tournaments. In terms of their results at Dota Pro Circuit LAN events, they have obtained three second place finishes so far (at AMD SAPPHIRE Dota PIT League, Perfect World Masters and Captains Draft 4.0) and are currently sitting at number 5 in the Dota Pro Circuit rankings.
They are one of the best teams in the world at the moment and display an enormous amount of skill in almost all of their games. Team Liquid’s form has been consistently good throughout the entire season: 1st place at StarLadder i-League Invitational #3, 3rd-4th place at ESL One Hamburg, 1st place at AMD SAPPHIRE Dota PIT League, 1st place at Midas Mode and 2nd place at DreamLeague Season 8.
They chose not to take part in the last few Dota Pro Circuit Minors, but they’re still the same team that won The International 2017. And up until this point, they totally dominated the opposition and won group B, dropping a single game against Newbee.
After finishing in 2nd place at The International 2017, Newbee went on a slight decline and only managed to win one tournament in 5 months: Perfect World Masters. They’re not playing poorly, but they’re not at the top of their game either. At the moment they’re sitting at number 4 in the Dota Pro Circuit rankings, having 1035 points.
They are a very interesting team to watch at the moment, partly because of the massive transformation they recently went through. The team has a new coach (Kanishka “BuLba” Sosale) and the roster is looking very unusual compared to the old EG. Saahil “UNiVeRsE” Arora left the team and was signed by Fnatic, Rasmus “MISERY” Filipsen joined as the new captain, Sumail “Sumail” Hassan moved from midlane to offlane, and Clinton “Fear” Loomis is now playing carry/mid, along with Artour “Arteezy” Babaev (they frequently swap roles, depending on the opponent and draft).
In terms of strength, EG is right behind the best teams in the world right now, which often translates into poor tournament results, simply because they usually can’t get passed them in the early stages of competitions they participate in.
With this new roster, EG lost their first match of the Playoffs at Captains Draft 4.0 (score 1-2 against Team Secret) and were eliminated from the tournament very quickly. However, they looked strong and displayed great teamwork throughout that tournament, both during the Group Stage as well as in the Playoffs match versus Team Secret.
At their latest LAN event (Galaxy Battles II: Emerging Worlds), Evil Geniuses finished 2nd after they were defeated by VGJ.Thunder in the Finals (score 3-0). However, none of their Nemesis teams were present at that event.
At ESL One Genting 2018, Evil Geniuses qualified for the Playoffs by finishing 3rd in their group. Overall they looked quite strong, but they’re still the underdog in their Quarterfinals match against Virtus.pro.
Newbee vs Vici Gaming
These two Chinese teams met each other no less than 8 times during this season. Vici Gaming won 5 of those matches, while Newbee won 3. Vici Gaming also won the latest 2 encounters (score 2-1 both times), which makes them favorites to win this time again in my opinion. The match will most likely go the distance, so a bet on either of these teams with a +1.5 game handicap would have a very high probability of success.
Virtus.pro vs Evil Geniuses
Virtus.pro are much stronger than Evil Geniuses at the moment, so a 2-0 victory in their favor wouldn’t surprise anyone. The CIS team had some very close games against Team Secret and even outplayed them multiple times throughout that match, so a much weaker team like EG shouldn’t be much of a threat.
In the Semifinals, we will likely see Team Secret winning against Vici Gaming and Team Liquid winning against Virtus.pro.
A Team Secret vs Team Liquid Finals is the most likely outcome of the Playoffs brackets. Such a match would likely be won by Team Secret at this point, as they are one step ahead of everyone else at the moment. Their understanding of the current meta and the level of synergy within their team is simply phenomenal right now. So I can’t imagine anyone beating them yet.