ESL One Genting 2018 Predictions and Tournament Preview
ESL One Genting 2018 is the 10th tournament of the Dota Pro Circuit. The event has a prize pool of 400.000 dollars, offers a total of 400 qualifying points and is scheduled to take place in Genting, Malaysia at the Arena of Stars venue (seating capacity: ~6000) between January 23 and January 28.
Organized by ESL in association with Mineski Event Team and being sponsored in part by renowned companies such as Intel, Mercedes-Benz and MSI, ESL One Genting 2018 is the most prestigious Minor of the 2017-2018 competitive season. And not just in terms of qualifying points and prize money, but also as a viewing spectacle for Dota 2 fans around the world. That’s because the number of participants at this tournament is 16 instead of the usual 8, so a lot of great teams will be present to delight the audience and put on a great show.
Because it belongs to the Dota Pro Circuit, ESL One Genting 2018 offers not only prize money, but qualification points as well. These points will be used at the end of the season to determine the teams that will receive a direct invite to The International 2018.
The tournament’s prize pool distribution is yet to be announced, by the 400 qualification points it rewards will be spread among participating teams in the following way:
- 1st place: 200 points.
- 2nd place: 120 points.
- 3rd-4th place: 40 points.
- 5th-16th place: 0 ponts.
Participants and tournament format
ESL One Genting features 16 teams from 6 different regions:
- North America: Evil Geniuses, compLexity Gaming.
- Europe: Team Liquid, Team Secret, PENTA Sports, Planet Dog.
- China: Newbee, Vici Gaming, LGD.Forever Young, VGJ.Thunder.
- CIS: Virtus.pro, Natus Vincere.
- South America: SG e-sports.
- Southeast Asia: Fnatic, Mineski, TNC Pro Team.
Initially, the teams will be divided into 2 groups of 8. Both of these groups will be played in a double elimination bracket format, with everyone starting in the upper bracket. The opening matches will be Bo1. The rest of the matches, with the exception of the Playoffs Finals (which will be a Bo5), are Bo3.
The top 3 teams from each group qualify for the Playoffs. The winner of a group advances directly to the Semifinals, while the next two teams advance to the Quarterfinals, where the second placed team from each group plays against the third placed team from the other.
Team Secret vs Planet Dog
Team Secret should be able to win this one with ease. They’re the number one team in the world right now and their opponent is nowhere near their skill level.
compLexity Gaming vs Fnatic
This will be a very disputed match. Fnatic are slightly better and will most likely win, but the victory can easily go either way.
Vici Gaming vs VGJ.Thunder
Both of these teams are from the Chinese region so they know each other very well. In their last two direct encounters, Vici Gaming defeated VGJ.Thunder with the score of 2-1 and 2-0 respectively. So they’re favorites to win this time again.
SG e-sports vs Virtus.pro
Unless something completely unexpected happens, Virtus.pro will simply walk over SG e-sports like they’re an amateur team.
Team Liquid vs PENTA Sports
This is another mismatch, in the sense that Team Liquid are too many levels above their opponents.
Natus Vincere vs Evil Geniuses
Both of these teams are very strong at the moment, so the result is completely unpredictable. In principle, Evil Geniuses should win if they don’t get outdrafted, but that’s exactly what might happen. So, if you want to bet on this match, make sure you watch the drafting phase first.
Mineski vs TNC Pro Team
Both of these teams are from Southeast Asia and have encountered each other 8 times so far during this season. Mineksi won 6 of those matches while TNC won only 2. What makes things complicated however is the fact that TNC won 2 out of the last 3 engagements. Furthermore, this match will be a Bo1, so you might want to be careful and only place a bet if one of these teams gets outdrafted.
LGD.Forever Young vs Newbee
They’re both very strong Chinese teams, but Newbee are in a much better form. LGD.Forever Young accomplished very little after their 3rd place finish at The International 2017, while Newbee are sitting at number 4 in the current Dota Pro Circuit rankings.
For Group A, the teams that are most likely to qualify for the Playoffs are Team Secret, Vici Gaming and Virtus.pro.
For group B, Team Liquid and Newbee will likely finish 1st and 2nd, but the 3rd place could go to almost anyone else.
Given the brackets and the participants, the teams most likely to get a top 4 finish and earn some Dota Pro Circuit qualification points are Team Secret, Virtus.pro, Team Liquid and Newbee.
Based on Team Secret’s latest tournament performance (Captains Draft 4.0, which they barely won against Vici Gaming), betting predictors don’t think they will win the ESL One Genting 2018 Minor, and there’s actually a high probability that Vici Gaming will win Group A.